Analytics News
09.03.2022

Energy: how allies can support Ukraine?

The Energy front is one of the most important at the moment, which allows to support the defence and vital activity of Ukrainian cities. Our allies can help us ensure uninterrupted energy supply.

Coal

Currently, the stability of the energy system is maintained through nuclear power plants, hydropower, as well as thermal power plants and combined heat and power plants.

For stable operation of thermal generation, coal is mainly used. Ukraine’s own production is supplemented by imported coal to completely cover the needs for this type of fuel.

Problem: Coal sources and supply routes are currently unreliable because:

  • supply of coal from international partners through sea routes is blocked by the Russian Navy in the Black and Azov seas;
  • supply of coal from the Russian Federation and transit from Kazakhstan through the territory of the Russian Federation is impossible;
  • the volume of coal supplies from Poland via the railway is insufficient to meet current needs and accumulate strategic reserves;
  • the supply of own-produced coal may be suspended at any time due to the approach of battles to mining areas and / or damage to railways.

Decision:

  1. Create new transport corridors through EU countries (EU seaports → EU rail network → Ukrainian rail network), ensuring coal supplies.
  2. Ensure freedom of navigation in the Black Sea, inter alia – by forcible unblocking of Ukrainian ports.
Petroleum products

Ukraine is import-dependent on this commodity position. In 2021, imports of petroleum products from Belarus and Russia accounted for about 64% of all petroleum products.

During and after the war, Ukraine is likely to no longer import oil products from Russia and Belarus.

Problem: demand for petroleum products exceeds supply.

Decision:

  1. Ensure sufficient imports of petroleum products from EU countries not only by rail, but also by other means of transport.
  2. Ensure the supply of crude oil and petroleum products from other countries to increase domestic refining.
  3. Provide funding for the reconstruction of the Odessa refinery factory, which is currently a state-owned enterprise, or start the process of privatization by a strategic investor from the EU / US / other partner countries, subject to its modernization and guaranteed annual production volumes. The refinery is a convenient logistics hub for the supply of Caspian (primarily Azerbaijani) oil by tankers.
  4. Finance works on increasing the capacity of the Shebelynskyi refinery factory.
  5. Consider the possibility of reconstruction of existing / construction of new refineries on the site of infrastructure that was previously used by currently closed refineries (Kherson, Lysychansk), in case of return to state ownership of these refineries or their territories.
  6. Create minimum stocks of oil and petroleum products for use during a state of emergency or martial law.
Natural gas

Ukraine’s own production of this fuel does not cover the needs of enterprises and the population. The actual consumption of natural gas in Ukraine in 2021 amounted to 26.8 billion m3, while its own production – about 20 billion m3.

To balance demand, Ukraine uses gas imports from the EU, including a virtual reverse. “Virtual reverse” involves the exchange of natural gas between operators of gas transmission systems, when physically the gas does not move across the border, and the parties offset. Technologically possible volume of gas imports to Ukraine from the EU is up to 35 million m3 per day, or about 10 billion m3 per year.

Problem: in case of termination of transit of Russian gas through GTS of Ukraine, gas import can be complicated, and virtual reverse is impossible.

Decision:

  1. Ensure uninterrupted gas imports from the EU in case of termination of natural gas transit through Ukraine’s GTS.
  2. Create and expand LNG physical supply routes to Ukraine.

The material was published on UBR